Christchurch Property Market & Growth: The City’s New Normal

After 25 years living and working in Christchurch, Alan Grove has experienced the city before the earthquakes, through the rebuild and into the market taking shape today. Here he reflects on what comes next after 15 years of rebuilding, and why Christchurch may finally have the luxury of simply getting on with being a city.

By Alan Grove, South Island Regional Manager

We might be too close to see it

There’s a buzz about our city right now. Everywhere, it seems, except among Cantabrians.

We are a fairly conservative bunch by nature, and on the streets you don’t hear too many people here talking the city up, mostly we’re just getting on with daily life. But take a look at Christchurch from the outside and you could be forgiven for thinking there’s a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

The property sector, particularly around the central city, is recalibrating. The major anchor projects are finishing up, contractors and consultants are looking to backfill their workbooks and the conversation is shifting to how we make the most of these new facilities and the rebuilt CBD.

When Veros established its Christchurch presence earlier this year, I wrote about why Christchurch, and why now. A few months on, working across projects outside of Christchurch has given me a greater appreciation for what we have here. Conditions are undoubtedly tougher elsewhere around the country and seeing that has made me realise how accustomed we’ve become to what Christchurch now has. Are those of us living and working here underestimating just how well Christchurch is positioned?

What does ‘normal’ look like after 15 years of rebuilding?

The earthquakes changed everything. We lost people, homes, offices and major facilities, and large parts of the CBD simply shut off. For the past 15 years, Christchurch’s property and construction market has been anything but normal.

Ten years ago, the feeling was that we still had such a long way to go. Five years ago, things were finally starting to happen. COVID came along and disrupted things again. Now, many of the big pieces are actually here.

Tūranga, Te Pae Christchurch Convention Centre, Parakiore Recreation and Sport Centre and One New Zealand Stadium at Te Kaha are all world-class facilities that have helped create a much more complete and vibrant city.

The completion of those projects creates another challenge. Construction activity associated with those major projects has dropped away, and the industry now has to work out what fills the gap.

Christchurch now has the chance to settle into a normal market that moves in a more logical, measured and sustainable way. Let’s face it, Cantabrians have had enough highs and lows. What comes next may simply be business as usual, whatever that now is.

Christchurch didn’t wait to be rebuilt

Alongside the major public investment, we wouldn’t be where we are today without the local private investors who backed Christchurch early.

Philip Carter, Richard Peebles, Nick Hunt and the Gough family, to name a few, were among those prepared to put significant private capital into the city when there was still plenty of uncertainty around what came next.

Projects like Riverside Market, Little High and The Crossing, alongside new offices and other central-city developments, gave people reasons to come back into the CBD while major public projects were still being planned or delivered.

There had been plenty of expectation that significant overseas capital would flow into Christchurch after the earthquakes. In reality, much of the early investment came from local people prepared to back their own city. They got on with it.

I think their contribution to Christchurch’s recovery and this position we are now in is sometimes underestimated.

What Christchurch’s new normal now offers

Sitting in our office space on High Street, Christchurch feels substantially different from five, ten or even twenty-five years ago, when I first moved here.

There’s a different energy, it feels younger, busier and more vibrant. Even since I started working from QB Studios, I’ve noticed the desks filling up around me with small businesses and young professionals choosing to base themselves in the central city.

Younger people who might once have automatically looked to Auckland, Sydney or Melbourne are increasingly seeing Christchurch as a genuine option. There are career and education opportunities, but also housing choice, and a lifestyle that is hard to beat, with skiing, surfing, the great outdoors all on our city’s doorstep.

Affordability is a big part of that equation. Someone selling a $2 million home in Auckland could potentially buy something comparable here for around half that. But affordability only gets you so far. The difference now is that affordability isn’t the only reason to come here.

Selwyn and Waimakariri give Greater Christchurch room to grow and continue supplying new housing at prices that compare favourably with other major centres. People can choose a central-city apartment, an established suburb or a new community further out and still remain well connected to the city.

Tourism is rebounding too, and major events at the new stadium are already flowing through into busy hotels, bars and restaurants. New hospitality operators are backing the central city as well. Owners of Auckland-based, country music bar Jolene are opening a second New Zealand venue on St Asaph Street, while The Lancaster, a major new sports bar, is planned directly opposite Te Kaha.

Literally outside the window from my desk, I can see Downtown Christchurch coming out of the ground, a new mixed-use precinct bringing together homes, offices, retail and hospitality between Cashel Mall and Te Kaha. Nearby, Harley Chambers, one of the remaining so-called ‘Dirty 30’ earthquake-damaged buildings, is being demolished to make way for a new high-end hotel. It’s all go here.

People are doing the numbers and deciding there is enough confidence in the city’s future to invest in what comes next.

A mature city still has things to get right

Christchurch has come a long way, but there are still a few kinks to work through.

The Blueprint has largely been a success, and one of its most important ideas was bringing people back to live in the central city. The East Frame was intended to respond to help change that, with medium density housing including townhouses and apartments, designed to bring more permanent residents into the central city.

Short-term accommodation has complicated this situation. A successful city centre needs more than visitors, it needs owner-occupiers and long-term tenants who support hospitality and retail throughout the year, create communities and make neighbourhoods feel lived in. To be fair, Airbnb and other short-term accommodation platforms were nowhere near as prevalent when the Blueprint was created, so it is not something planners could necessarily have anticipated.

The other challenge is the changing first-home buyer. In theory, this sort of housing should be a great option for someone in their mid-20s starting out, a townhouse in the central city, close to work, hospitality and everything going on around them. The problem is that many people simply aren’t in a position to buy at that age anymore.

By the time they are ready to buy, they may be in their 30s, thinking about a family and looking for more space. At that point, the traditional New Zealand pull toward a standalone house and garden can be hard to compete with, particularly when places like Rolleston offer that option within reach of the city.

Some of that comes down to changing how we think about central city living. There are plenty of cities around the world where families live very happily in townhouses and apartments. If we want a genuinely lived-in central city, we need to make that choice attractive to people at different stages of life, not just investors and short-term visitors.

The horse may have partly bolted, but it is not too late. There is still plenty of residential development to come, including Quill Lane and Williams on Worcester, and Downtown Christchurch. Developers are responding to the market in front of them, so it will be interesting to see who ultimately chooses to live there and whether the next wave of housing helps create the permanent residential community the central city still needs.

Perhaps normal is exactly what Christchurch needs

This isn’t a boom. What I think we are seeing is something steadier. Development is happening, the economy is broader, businesses are investing and, importantly, they seem to be making long-term decisions about Christchurch.

None of that makes the current market easy, Christchurch faces the same cost pressures and economic challenges as the rest of the country. But comparatively, we are well positioned. House prices have remained relatively steady, the population is growing, people are moving into the region, tourism is recovering and businesses are considering significant investment here.

We are seeing that ourselves at Veros. We’re talking with businesses considering new headquarters, facilities and significant operations in Canterbury. These aren’t businesses chasing a short-term property cycle. They’re making long-term decisions about where they want to be.

Our economy is broader too. Agriculture and dairy remain incredibly important, but they now sit alongside technology, advanced manufacturing, aerospace, health and biotech, education and tourism. That diversity should make Christchurch more resilient over time.

There is a physical side to resilience as well. After 15 years of earthquakes, rebuilds, delays and disruption, Christchurch now has newer infrastructure, buildings designed to modern seismic standards and newer homes built to much higher standards for warmth and energy efficiency.

Those of us who live here have become too accustomed to what Christchurch now offers.

It isn’t perfect and it isn’t booming, but it is liveable, comparatively affordable and growing, with a broader economy and people still willing to invest here. And after the past 15 years, that sort of normal looks pretty good.

Alan Grove leads Veros’ Christchurch team, bringing more than 30 years of property and development experience to projects across Canterbury and the South Island.

Get in touch to talk to our team today.